Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of CoV2

栏目: IT技术 · 发布时间: 6年前

内容简介:Estimation of the prevalence and contagiousness of undocumented novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2) infections is critical for understanding the overall prevalence and pandemic potential of this disease. Here we use observations of reported infection within Chin

Abstract

Estimation of the prevalence and contagiousness of undocumented novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV2) infections is critical for understanding the overall prevalence and pandemic potential of this disease. Here we use observations of reported infection within China, in conjunction with mobility data, a networked dynamic metapopulation model and Bayesian inference, to infer critical epidemiological characteristics associated with SARS-CoV2, including the fraction of undocumented infections and their contagiousness. We estimate 86% of all infections were undocumented (95% CI: [82%–90%]) prior to 23 January 2020 travel restrictions. Per person, the transmission rate of undocumented infections was 55% of documented infections ([46%–62%]), yet, due to their greater numbers, undocumented infections were the infection source for 79% of documented cases. These findings explain the rapid geographic spread of SARS-CoV2 and indicate containment of this virus will be particularly challenging.


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计算机科学概论(第11版)

计算机科学概论(第11版)

J. Glenn Brookshear / 刘艺、肖成海、马小会、毛倩倩 / 人民邮电出版社 / 2011-10-1 / 69.00元

本书多年来一直深受世界各国高校师生的欢迎,是美国哈佛大学、麻省理工学院、普林斯顿大学、加州大学伯克利分校等许多著名大学的首选教材,对我国的高校教学也产生了广泛影响。 本 书以历史眼光,从发展的角度、当前的水平以及现阶段的研究方向等几个方面,全景式描绘了计算机科学各个子学科的主要领域。在内容编排上,本书很好地兼顾了 学科广度和主题深度,把握了最新的技术趋势。本书用算法、数据抽象等核心思想贯穿各......一起来看看 《计算机科学概论(第11版)》 这本书的介绍吧!

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